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In an unexpected uncovering , scientist find climate change is yet to alter the ice cover on Yellowstone Lake . However , a tipping head may be coming for North America ’s declamatory high-pitched - altitude lake , researchers suggest in a new study .
locate around 7,733 human foot ( 2,357 metre ) above sea level in the heart of Yellowstone National Park and spanning 132 substantial mile ( 342 square kilometers ) , the lake usually freeze over in previous December or former January and thaws toward the end of May .
A 2015 photograph of Mary Bay in Yellowstone Lake, Yellowstone National Park.
Yet despite increasing ambient temperatures , the lake — unlike many others around the Earth — has not yet lost any of its ice cover during the colder months . While this may seem like cause for Bob Hope , investigator behind the new study have said it could be a foretoken that the lake may be due to cross a threshold where most of its ice is irreversibly lost .
Their compeer - refresh determination are due to be published in the journalEnvironmental Research Letters .
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" We show that contrary to expectation , the ice phenology [ seasonality ] of Yellowstone Lake has been unambiguously immune toclimate change , " the scientist wrote in the study . " The unchanging ice phenology of Yellowstone Lake stands in stark direct contrast to similar lakes in the Northern Hemisphere . "
Researchers used the full record of the lake ’s trash going back to 1931 . By match these records with mood data from the same period and compare them to alike high - ALT lakes in Europe , they were capable to study how Yellowstone Lake had switch over clip .
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And it modify astonishingly picayune compared to others , despite temperatures at the lake increasing by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit ( 2.5 degree Celsius ) between 1980 and 2018 , and air temperature being a fundamental number one wood of icing organisation and break - up .
To explain the disagreement , the researchers look at the charge per unit of give snowfall over the lake . To their surprise , they find it had nearly doubled over the same timeframe . They believe that the increase snowfall has had a " buffering " effect on the neighborhood ’s meth loss .
But this may not be dependable news for the lake in the long terminal figure . If snowfall is maintain the lake ’s frappe cover charge , temperature are likely to reach a tip where the snow thawing and the burden disappears — cause a sudden and irreversible tipping point in time in the lake ’s frosting .
" Our results , pair with recent analysis of climate expulsion , suggest a ' tipping point ' may be coming when glass phenology suddenly changes for Yellowstone Lake , " they wrote . " This tipping decimal point will for the most part staunch from the ongoing break from snow to rain - overshadow downfall regimes in the crepuscle and bound . "
