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The U.S. Southwest has been in a drouth since 2000 — in fact , it ’s beenthe realm ’s driest period in 1,200 year . Many researchers have tag this exceptionally dry period of time a " megadrought . "
At the same metre , an " exceptionally strong"El Niño event is now 95 % likelyto last through at least February 2024 , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) scientists auspicate . Given that this ocean - warming result typically brings squiffy weather condition to the Southwest , could an conclusion to the megadrought finally be in sight ?
The Southwest United States has been in a megadrought since 2000.
Unfortunately , one secure El Niño on its own is in all probability not enough to end the megadrought , expert told Live Science . And even if the wetting agent condition do end the 22 - yr - long drouth , the part is in all probability transitioning to a permanently ironical service line . That means the region ask to figure out retentive - condition scheme to ensure there ’s enough water to go around .
relate : The worst droughts in U.S. history
While there arevarious definitions of a megadrought , it ’s generally considered a drought that lasts longer than two 10 , is more severe than other droughts the area has seen , or some combination of the two .
Realtime El Niño measurements as of Aug. 27, 2023.
" No matter how you slice it , we ’re in juiceless precondition in the [ US ] Southwest and are not project to come up out of them , at least in the long term , anytime soon,“Samantha Stevenson , a professor at the Bren School of Environmental Science and Management at the University of California , Santa Barbara , tell Live Science .
El Niño , meanwhile , occur when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warmer than common .
" It has global consequences , " saidErika Wise , a prof in the Department of Geography at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill . " Some places have floods , some property have droughts , some places are quick , some places are nerveless . The Southwest has one of the more honest answer to El Niño , even though it ’s fairly far aside , which is that it run to be wetter in El Niño old age , " she told Live Science .
A 2022 study revealed that the current megadrought is caused by human-driven climate change. Here, an aerial view of a dry river bed in Nevada.
Possible end to drought?
All that pelting could be enough to pull the neighborhood out of drought , at least for a while , Stevenson enunciate .
But any rain El Niño brings will have to make up for the utmost heat of this summertime in much of the Southwest , withtemperatures in Phoenix , for exemplar , topping 110 degrees Fahrenheit ( 43 degrees Celsius ) for 31 days in a row .
" The thing with drouth is that it ’s not just [ about ] rain ; it ’s also dehydration , " Wise said . Hot weather condition increase the evaporation of all the rainfall from this year ’s pixilated winter .
Nor is it guaranteed that El Niño will bring rainfall . El Niño loads the die favor wet conditions , but there ’s " sure enough no guarantee that the cockeyed conditions will play out , " saidPark Williams , a prof in the Department of Geography at UCLA .
Williams say he does think that , at some point , the West will have a succession of wet years that breaks the current megadrought . And this class is a potential competitor .
" After the wet conditions of 2023 and give a develop El Niño for 2024 we could sure enough be lead in that direction now , " Williams said .
However , similar prognostication have been made before but did n’t come to pass . After pissed year in 2017 and 2019 , researchers thought the megadrought would stop . Then , dangerous drought returned in summer 2020 and stay on until last wintertime , he said .
A drier future
In the farsighted term , climate alteration is shifting to a drying agent baselinein theU.S. Southwest , Stevenson and her colleagues have shown . " you could get these extreme wet condition temporarily , but that background thawing and dry due to climate change is so muscular that that ’s going to win out in the closing , " she said .
In fact , a 2022 sketch by Williams and colleagues showed that the current megadrought onlybecame a megadrought due to human - driven climate change .
With the pitch baseline demonstrated by Stevenson ’s oeuvre , it ’s clear that no matter what , the region needs to use less water in the future than it has over the past C .
— betting odds of ' strong ' El Niño now over 95 % , with ocean temperatures to ' substantially transcend ' last braggy thaw consequence
— El Niño is officially here , scientist say
— NASA blob sign of El Niño from place : ' If it ’s a big one , the globe will see record book thaw '
In the 1920s , the water in the Colorado River was separate among the states in which it runs , for example , and more water was apportion in total than is available today .
Ultimately , the interrogation that really matters is not whether the megadrought will stay but whether there will be enough H2O to go around .
" A lot of that has more to do with the type of weewee infrastructure , and choices that we make in terms of preservation , than the sheer amount of water in the soil , " Stevenson said .
Even if the megadrought does officially end , climate change will require adjustments to water use to account for the amount available .
