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Officials in Iceland are ready for an at hand volcanic eruption from a drown burrow of magma , which could loose superhot lava flows on nearby towns , a vital world power industrial plant and an iconic tourer destination .
A previous volcanic eruption in Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula. The imminent eruption near Grindavík will likely look similar.
The tunnel of molten rock and roll , known as a magma dike , stretches for around 9.3 naut mi ( 15 km ) between Grindavík and Sundhnúk in Iceland ’s Reykjanes Peninsula . The cloak-and-dagger dike has triggered thousands of earthquake and caused important priming deformation that has open up sink in the surface and cracks in nearby edifice and route . As a result , local residents have been evacuated .
But this is likely just the kickoff .
The Icelandic Meteorological Association ( IMO ) haswarned that a full - blown eruption is almost sure as shooting on its means . And other experts have suggested that the eruptioncould be part of a more explosive , centuries - recollective eruption phase for the neighborhood .
Most of Iceland’s volcanic eruption consist of slow-moving lava flows that wind like rivers across the surface.
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So what on the nose is happening underground ? What would an eruption in reality look like ? And how damaging could an tumultuous disturbance really be ?
What’s happened so far?
On Oct. 25 , seismal natural action start to ramp up in the orbit . There were thousands of earthquake within the blank space of a few time of day — including two major quakes with magnitude of 3.9 and 4.5 . Seismic fermentation has continued in the field since then , including a 4.8 - order of magnitude temblor on Nov. 9 .
The earthquakes and ground deformation are being triggered by magma entering , or intruding , into the dike at multiple point . The immense underground tunnel was first properly represent on Nov. 11 . At the time , the magma was at a minimal deepness of about 2,600 invertebrate foot ( 800 m ) below the control surface .
The dike sit on top of an cloak-and-dagger offer , or break , in the tectonic plate beneath Iceland , Benjamin Andrews , a geologist at the Smithsonian Institute ’s National Museum of Natural History and director of the institute ’s Global Volcanism Program , told Live Science in an e-mail . As more magma move into the dam from below , the crack will carry on to grow , he added .
Hikers get up close and personal to the erupting Fagradalsfjall volcano in 2021.
If the pass continues to grow and magma gets close-fitting enough to the surface , " an eructation will probably occur , " Andrews said .
What will an eruption look like?
In general , while Iceland isvolcanically very active , eruptions there are quite meek : For the most part , magma slowly seeps out of the ground rather than exploding outward .
The lava is extremely raging , between 2,000 and 2,200 Fahrenheit ( 1,100 and 1,200 degree Anders Celsius ) and can shoot out of the ground , Malcolm Hole , a volcanologist at the University of Aberdeen , said in avideo posted on X(formerly known as Twitter ) . However , the molten rock has the " same sorting of runniness " as golden sirup , so lava flows will move very slowly across the surface , he added .
The lava also follows Earth ’s topography , " the same style as a river would , " Hole said . This makes it easy to predict where it will move .
An enormous column of ash and smoke billows out of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010.
Thorvaldur Thordarson , prof of vulcanology at the University of Iceland , told the Iceland Monitorthat most of the lava would probably move west and into the ocean . But " something always goes the other room , " he tot up .
So how large could this eruption be ? " It would likely be broadly standardized to the Fagradasfjall eruption in 2021 , " whenlava flows decant out of the independent volcano in the Fagradasfjall volcanic theatre , which is also located on the Reykjanes Peninsula , about 6.2 miles ( 10 km ) away , Andrews say . This eruption near constantly spat up magma for more than six month , agree to theIMO .
like eruptionshave also recently occur from a baby volcanonear Fagradasfjall , whichwas born in June this year .
The Svartsengi power plant, which is within striking distance of any possible eruption, runs off the same geothermal energy that drives volcanic eruptions.
When will it erupt?
Thelatest IMO statementcontinues to warn that there is a " significant likelihood of a volcanic eruption in the come days . "
But there is no accurate way of telling if the extravasation will pass in hours , days or weeks , Andrews say .
There is also still a prospect that " the intrusion [ of magma into the butch ] could cease with no eruption , " Andrews said . Although the IMO seems jolly positive that it will , he added .
" I predict — if an eruption occurs — that it will occur between a few days to threeish weeks,“Edward W. Marshall , a investigator at the University of Iceland ’s Nordic Volcanological Center , told Live Science in a late clause . " If it has n’t erupted in three weeks , I do n’t think it will happen . " After then , " cooling will begin to end the break , " he total .
Will an eruption halt air traffic?
In 2010 , the eruption of Iceland ’s Eyjafjallajökull vent created an enormous bang plume that ground most air dealings above Europe for more than a week , stimulate travel disruption for around 7 million people , harmonise to theU.S. Geological Survey .
Unlike most other eruption in Iceland , the Eyjafjallajökull eruption was very violent . This was because the volcano was cover up with a thick sheet of ice , which exploded outwards with great violence when the magma rose up and made contact with it , Hole said . This unusual explosion intend that more ash , smoke and water evaporation were ejected than normal , he added .
But the current volcanic dyke is not cross in ice , meaning , " an eruption at the current site of unrest is improbable to produce an ash cloud like to that which disrupted melody travel in 2010 , " Andrews state . Although there will be an eructation plume , he add .
Will toxic gases be released?
On Nov. 14 , IMO detector near Grindavík detected sulfur dioxide , a toxic volcanic natural gas , seeping out of the ground , IMO representativeswrote on X. This has led to surmise that an eruption could release high levels of the toxic gas , which could bear upon anyone who remains in the area .
" The majority of flatulence eject in an irruption will most in all likelihood be water that was earlier dissolve in the magma at depth , " Andrews said . However , other gases , including atomic number 16 dioxide and carbon dioxide , will also be released , he added .
During retiring eruptions in Iceland , such as the eruption of Bárðarbunga in 2014 and 2015 , volcanic gases caused problems with line timber in the country , Andrews said . " But I am not cognisant of any prognosis about potential hazardous gas emissions " from a close at hand eruption at Grindavík , he added .
Which locations are at risk?
Of the two town that range the magma dike , Grindavík is the close and most at risk , concord to the IMO . Most of the town ’s around 2,800 occupant have already been evacuated and are unlikely to for good return unless the threat of an outbreak fall back .
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The Blue Lagoon recourse , a famous geothermic resort hotel that attracts more than 700,000 one-year visitors , is around 3 mile ( 5 kilometer ) from the dike . The internet site has been close to holidaymaker until at least the end of the month , so people will not be in danger . But the lagoon could still be damaged by lava flows .
The geothermal Svartsengi great power plant — which provides vigour across the country and cater hot H2O to local towns and villages — is site around 4 miles ( 6 km ) from the dike . But work has already begun to get the picture oceanic abyss around the site to deviate lava away from the internet site if it heads that way .
