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Scientists have reveal a fundamental monition sign before a crucial Atlantic current collapses and plunge the Northern Hemisphere into climate chaos .
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) carries tender water northerly from the Southern Hemisphere , where it release heating plant and freezes . The freezing process concentrates salt in the non - stock-still portion of the ocean water ; this supernumerary - saline water supply sinks , travels back south and plunk up hotness again , resume the conveyor belt . ( The Gulf Stream is part of this belt ammunition . )
The tipping point for the collapse of a key Atlantic Ocean current may have been discovered by scientists.
This outlet of heat helps keep Europe , and to some extent North America , balmier than it otherwise would be . But sediment record over the past 100,000 year hint that , at time , the AMOC has shut down dead , leading to major climate shifts over bare 10 .
scientist conceive we could be veer towards this scenario once again — potentially as betimes as 2025 — as a result of mood modification . However , until now research worker had no way of telling if the stream is on the path toward one of these tipping points .
In a new subject field , published today ( Feb. 9 ) in the journalScience Advances , scientists institute that the period of invigorated water into the Atlantic Ocean at a latitude of 34 degrees south ( the latitude where South Africa baby-sit ) may argue a cardinal warning house for an impendent AMOC flop . The team found that about 25 years before the AMOC collapses , this flow reaches a minimum ) .
The AMOC transports warm water from the Southern Hemisphere to the north, helping to keep Europe and other regions warm.
Scientists do n’t have a long enough record of observance of freshwater stream at this spot to predict how far off the AMOC is from a tipping point right now . However , they do know that this menses has been declining .
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" We are approaching the tipping point , but we can not deduce the distance to the tipping point , " study first authorRené M. van Westen , a postdoctoral researcher in marine and atmospheric science at Utrecht University , told Live Science .
Because the rising and sinking of the AMOC depends on the salt of the water , this circulation is very sensitive to influxes of invigorated water , van Westen tell . As the clime warms and precipitation patterns change , the patterns of fresh water flow rate into the ocean change , too .
It ’s hard to augur the outcomes , though , and finding the AMOC ’s tipping tip need simulating a gradual increase in freshwater flow rate in the northern Atlantic over more than 2,000 years , van Westen enunciate . This is a long and computationally expensive mental process , but adjudicate to tailor corner by simulating big fresh water pulses is not as naturalistic or precise .
The researchers modeled this gradual freshwater increase using state - of - the - art climate fashion model . They happen a farseeing negative style in fresh water flow at 34 degrees south — the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean — hit a minimum about 25 yr before the AMOC collapse . The lower limit is not tied to a specific salinity value , but rather is comparative to the patterns that occur before , so researchers are n’t certain how these conditions compare to today ’s . The AMOC collapse lead to a complete want of circulation and a loss of about 75 % of the heat transport from southward to north .
If the AMOC were to collapse in the near future , the consequences would be dire . Without the AMOC , the northerly Hemisphere would get colder , and the southern hemisphere would get warm , though by a less point . The effects vary by region , but Europe would be severely stumble , van Westen say , chill between 9 and 18 degrees Fahrenheit ( 5 to 10 degrees Celsius ) within a hundred . That ’s a huge swing , even compare with the current level of climate modification , which is already having impact .
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" On average , the global climate warms by about 0.2 degrees C [ 0.36 atomic number 9 ] per decade , " van Westen said .
The collapse of the AMOC would also run to changes in precipitation around the globe . For model , the wet and dry season in the Amazon rainforest would swap place , leading to major ecological impacts , the researchers wrote in the paper .
" We know under climate change that this AMOC will bit by bit countermine and this [ freshwater ] parameter will become more minus , so it will destabilize the AMOC further , " van Westen say . The message , he bring , is that the need to halt climate modification is urgent : " We need to break emit as a world club . "
