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" Warm " body of water is flowing toward one ofAntarctica ’s biggest chalk ledge , which , if it thaw , could dramatically raisesea levels .
The Filchner - Ronne Ice Shelf ( FRIS ) poke out over the Weddell Sea in Antarctica . Unlike someother Antarctic chalk shelves , FRIS currently appears stable in ourwarming world . However , previousocean modelinghas shown that comparatively strong water from the deep ocean could jeopardise the integrity of this ledge .
The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica.
In a study published Nov. 14 , 2024 in theJournal of Geophysical Research : Oceans , researchers found that warm water flows more rapidly toward the ledge during warmer class , which could be linked to reduced sea ice cover charge during these period , Eos magazinereported . If that is the subject , then a dramatic decline in ocean ice could make the shelf to fade .
" If the warm urine reaches underneath the ice ledge , it would mellow out the cornerstone of the ice ledge , " study first authorNadine Steiger , a physical oceanographer at Sorbonne University in France , told Live Science in an email .
The melting of a monolithic ice shelf like FRIS would ultimately run to immense sea level rise . However , researchers still have a pot to learn about this area , and it ’s unclear whether the increase catamenia of lovesome water is linked toclimate alteration .
Kaitlin Naughten , an sea - ice modeller at the British Antarctic Survey who was not involved in the study , told Live Science in an email that the warm pee " may be a warning sign , " but may also just be " normal variability " in the region . Either style , FRIS is unlikely to disappear anytime soon .
" If general government go bad to phase outfossil fuelsand climate alteration spirals out of control , FRIS might have a big problem in a century or two , " Naughten say .
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FRIS is protected by loggerheaded ice and nearly - freezing seawater flow over the submerged continental shelf that ring the coast of Antarctica in the Weddell Sea . However , in the summer , warmer water come up onto the continental shelf from the candid ocean and travel toward the ice ledge through a channel called the Filchner Trough , accord to the field .
Naughten take note that the deep sea water around Antarctica is about 33.8 degrees Fahrenheit ( 1 degree Celsius ) , so it ’s not really particularly strong , but it ’s warm than the freezing point of seawater , which is about 28.4 F ( subtraction 2 snow ) — salt lour the freezing breaker point of pee .
" You would n’t want to go float there , but it can melt ice-skating rink very quickly , " Naughten enounce .
The amount of warm water flowing through the Filchner Trough and another previously unknown till identified in the bailiwick was particularly high in 2017 and 2018 — and ocean ice was also modest in those years . However , the study authors only had data from 2017 to 2021 . Both Steiger and Naughten highlighted the grandness of long - term observance to better understand the region and predict future trash ledge change .
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Ultimately , while scientist fit that warm water inundate the continental shelf would likely write day of reckoning for FRIS , some enquiry suggests that this would only come about in an utmost climate variety scenario .
Naughten led a 2021 study published in the journalNaturethatestimated the FRIS tipping point would only be cross when spherical warming top 12.6 F ( 7 C ) above pre - industrial levels . That amount of heating is way above the alreadydangerous door of 2 coulomb ( 3.6 F ) , which would greatly increase the chance of irreversible mood breakdown . For context , 2024 was thefirst year to breach 2.7 F(1.5 atomic number 6 ) .
" We need to monitor the Filchner - Ronne for signs of change , but other regions of Antarctica will melt away long before this one does , " Naughten said . " We are already honor rapid ice going in West Antarctica , which is the quickest - acquire donation to sea degree rising . "
