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The next El Niño Southern Oscillation can be predicted more than two years in advance , consort to a new study that looked at thousands of years of preceding climate data .
TheEl Niño - Southern Oscillation(ENSO ) is a climate wheel that is characterized by the cooling ( La Niña ) and warming ( El Niño ) of the sea control surface above the central and eastern tropicalPacific Ocean . It is one of the strongest and most predictable weather patterns affecting the global climate . Using various climate modelling , scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) have beenforecasting ENSO eventsabout six to 12 month in advance . But the new report , published June 16 in the journalGeophysical Research Letters , more than double that prediction window in some instances .
A hurricane cloud over the Pacific. The weather patterns El Niño and La Niña are major influences on storm activity across the globe.
In the conterminous U.S. , both El Niño and La Niña influence hurricane in both the Atlantic and Pacific ocean . Like a seesaw , La Niña weakens hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific and strengthens it in the Atlantic . El Niño does the opposite . And strong El Niño events typically meanwet weatherfor the U.S. Southwest , while La Niña typically presages red-hot , dry conditions in the same part .
Predicting the weather more than a few calendar week out is challenge , but " when the sea or land surface or ice gets involved , we can get some long predictability because these processes acquire more slowly , " study lead authorNathan Lenssen , a climatologist at the Colorado School of Mines and a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research , tell Live Science .
tie in : What is El Niño ?
When it come to predicting ENSO , " the longer take time we have on any of those , the better,“Emily Becker , a climate scientist at the University of Miami who was not involve in the sketch , told Live Science . ENSO prediction is valuable for emergency brake planning and resource management , she said . For instance , if drouth conditions are likely in the next few years , state politics can enact water - spar or depot programme in betterment .
However , few survey have tried to prefigure El Niño or La Niña more than a year in advance .
To test whether such predictions were trusty , Lenssen and his team attend at 10 sophisticated models that draw on one C to thousands of years of data on sea level , air temperature , rainfall and more to simulate the mood . The models were essentially recreating a specific power point in time — say , January 2000 — and sample to foretell the mood for the next three years—2000 , 2001 and 2002 — without additional info . The models also showed whether El Niño , La Niña or a achromatic Department of State was potential in those 36 months .
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The research team assess how well these models predicted ENSO against historic disc from 1901 to 2009 .
They found that ENSO is most predictable follow strong El Niño events , such as the ones in 1997 and 2016 . Moreover , their work showed that those forecasts could be made at least two year in advance . Multiyear predictions were less reliable during a weak El Niño or La Niña or in - between " inert " events .
" I recollect that this paper had a really thorough and comprehensive approaching , " Becker recount Live Science .
Climate foretelling centers have n’t free longer - terminus forecasting yet , but Lenssen and his team are in discussions with international agencies to see when or whether such long - term ENSO forecasts should be issued .
