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A period of ho-hum , creeping movement without any shaking may be a necessary prelude toearthquakes , a new study suggests .

The research , which was on the fundamentals of how materials rupture , focused on cracks snaking through sheets of plastic in a laboratory . But the experiment revealed some basic physics of how fracture forge — particularly how a buildup of clash at the interface of two trunk transform into a sudden break . And those finding do utilise to actual - world earthquakes , said study authorJay Fineberg , a physicist at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem .

Earthquake damage to a road in Turkey.

Earthquake damage to a road in Turkey. A new model suggests a period of “aseismic” movement occurs before an earthquake fault ruptures.

" The fabric composing the get hold of plate will not matter , " Fineberg tell Live Science . " The same physical process will take place in both lawsuit — the explosive spring of the bent plates will release in the same way . "

Earthquakes form when two architectonic shell move against one another get stuck , allowing the fault to work up up stress . " The plate are increasingly stressed by the force trying to move them , but are stuck at the brittle part of the interface that single out them , " Fineberg said . This brittle plane section , which does n’t wring in response to accent , has a finite thickness and is what breaks during a earthquake .

" The fracture process does n’t happen all at once . First , a crack needs to be create , " Fineberg said . When that crack reach the borders of the brittle port , that crack accelerates rapidly to speed near to the speed of audio . That ’s what make the solid ground shake up .

Screen-capture of a home security camera facing a front porch during an earthquake.

" The question is how does nature make the crevice which then becomes an earthquake ? " Fineberg .

Fineberg and his colleagues investigated the question with a mix of theoretic maths and science laboratory experiment . They regurgitate earthquake - like crack in the lab with blocks made of a thermoplastic called polymethyl methacrylate , better know as plexiglass . The research worker clamp sheets of plexiglass together and utilise a shear , or sidelong , force , standardized to those regain at a strike - eluding shift like Califonia’sSan Andreas Fault . Though the materials are different , the mechanics of the fracture are the same .

Once a crack set out , it playact like a one - dimensional line ripping through the stuff . Fineberg and his teamhad previously shownthat before the shot forms , though , the material originate a kind of predecessor phase called a nucleation front . These nucleation battlefront — the seminal fluid of cracks — move through the material , but much more tardily than standard cracks . It was n’t decipherable how this seed could rapidly transition into a tight - moving fracture .

Small ghostly lights appear along a dirt track.

Fineberg and his colleagues were get about how this could be . With a combination of research lab experiments and theoretical calculation , they realized that they demand a mathematics update : The nucleation fronts need to be modeled in 2D , not 1D.

alternatively of recall of a cleft as a line separating broken from kept fabric , Fineberg said , imagine the crack as a patch that initiate within the airplane where two plexi - glass " plates " sports meeting . The energy it takes to break new material at the border of the patch is linked with the patch ’s perimeter : As the perimeter grow , so does the energy it takes for Modern material to crack up .

That mean the bandage motility tardily and does n’t yet cause a rapid crack that would make the seismal waves and subsequent shaking motion associated with an earthquake . While the speedy speedup of a standard , rapid crack , release kinetic muscularity into the ring material , the slow movement of the initial patch does n’t release any energising vigour into its environs . Therefore , its bowel movement is known as " aseismic . "

a person points to an earthquake seismograph

finally , though , the patch spread out outside of the brittle zona where the two denture meet . Outside this zone , the energy it assume to get around new material no longer mature with the size of the broken neighborhood , and instead of a balance wheel of energy , there is now spare energy that needs somewhere to go .

" This extra vigor now causes the volatile motion of the crack , " Fineberg said .

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The findings , published Jan. 8 in the journalNature , show how a slow weirdo before a cracking can transition rapidly to an earthquake , he said . Theoretically , if one could measure aseismic movement before a rift — on a fault dividing line , for illustration , or even in a mechanically skillful target like an airplane wing — it might be possible to predict a break before it happens . This may be complicated in real - world faults , many of which undergo aseismic creep over long periods of timewithout releasing any earthquakes .

An aerial photograph of the Grand Prismatic Spring in Yellowstone.

Nevertheless , Fineberg and his team are now attempt to detect signs of the conversion from aseismic to seismic in their laboratory materials .

" In the science laboratory , we can watch this affair unfold and we can listen to the noise that it makes , " Fineberg say . " So maybe we can reveal what you ca n’t really do in a genuine fault , because you have no elaborated information on what an earthquake is doing until it explodes . "

Cross section of the varying layers of the earth.

a photo of people standing in front of the wreckage of a building

a photo of a road cracked by an earthquake

A photograph of the town of Fira above a cliff on Santorini island, taken on February 3, 2025, during the earthquake swarm.

A view of Santorini

Fragment of a stone with relief carving in the ground

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An image of the Eagle Nebula, a cluster of young stars.

a reconstruction of an early reptile