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As of Thursday ( Feb. 20 ) , NASA decreased the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 attain Earth in 2032from 1.5 % to 0.28 % .
Anasteroidbig enough to destroy a urban center is now much less potential to collide with Earth in 2032 , concord to the latestNASAdata .
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1 in 67 chance of hitting Earth at the time of writing.
In recent calendar week , NASA had been steadily increase the likeliness of a smash from asteroid 2024 YR4 , with the betting odds peaking on Tuesday ( Feb. 18 ) at 1 in 32 , or a3.1 % opportunity . However , on Wednesday ( Feb. 19 ) , the quad agencymore than halve the chancesto 1.5 % .
The odds are likely to shift again as astronomers learn more about YR4 ’s flight , but they expect the likelihood toend up at 0%once the space rock music ’s flight is confirm .
YR4 has an figure diameter of around 180 feet ( 55 meter ) — that estimate has been fluctuating a bit , but the asteroid is about as wide as the leaning tower of Pisa is tall . YR4 has the potential to release around 8 megaton of energy in the event of a strike — upwards of 500 times more energy than the nuclear bomb thatdestroyed Hiroshimain Japan . This intend it ’s bounteous enough towipe out a major citybut too small to terminate human civilization .
There ’s a midget chance that YR4will hit the mooninstead of Earth , but it will almost for certain navigate harmlessly past both when it makes its closest approach to Earth in 2032 .
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The Asteroid sublunar - impact Last Alert System ( ATLAS ) scope in Chile recorded asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 27 , 2024 , harmonise to the NASACenter for Near Earth Object Studies . By January , scientist had determined that YR4 had a more than 1 % chance of rack up Earth and thus warranted further attention from scientist .
With betting odds above 1 % , YR4 also attain level 3 on theTorino Impact Hazard Scale . The shell enables scientist to categorise the risk posed by space rocks . Level 3 is reserve for asteroids and comets capable of place destruction , but that are ask to be later reassign to level 0 — think of they pose no threat — once astronomer confirm they wo n’t hit Earth .
An international squad of scientists has been grantedemergency useof theJames Webb Space Telescope , humanity ’s most powerful space scope , to further valuate YR4 ’s peril . As more observation total in over the next few months , astronomer should become more confident that YR4 lay no threat to Earth , and we will see the menace level drop to zero .
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