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Forty - four of the world ’s leading climate scientists have call on Nordic policymakers to address the potentially close at hand and " withering " collapse of fundamental Atlantic Ocean current .
In anopen letterpublished online Monday ( Oct. 21 ) , University of Pennsylvania climatologistMichael Mannand other eminent scientist say the risk ofweakening ocean circulation in the Atlantichave been greatly underestimated and justify urgent military action .
Leading climate scientists signed an open letter warning about the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream.
The currents in question are those mold the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) , a giant sea transporter knock that includes the Gulf Stream and delight vital heat to the Northern Hemisphere . enquiry showsthe AMOC is slowing downandcould soon strive a tipping pointdue to ball-shaped warming , throw Earth ’s clime into chaos .
" Such an sea circulation alteration would have withering and irreversible impacts specially for Nordic countries , but also for other parts of the public , " the scientists wrote in the letter . The Nordic countries let in Denmark , Iceland , Norway , Finland and Sweden .
Related : Michael Mann : Yes , we can still stop the bad effects of climate change . Here ’s why .
A map of the ocean currents in the Atlantic.
An AMOC collapse would lead to major cooling and uttermost conditions in Nordic state , accord to the letter . This would enlarge and deepen a unknown " cold-blooded blob " that hasalready produce over the easterly North Atlanticdue to the slowdown of warmth - carrying currents . Collapsing sea currents are also probable to come down clime impacts across the Northern Hemisphere , threaten agriculture in Northwestern Europe , according to the letter .
Other regions would find the effect , too , the scientists said . Should the AMOC mash to a halt , it wouldtrigger a southward transformation in tropical monsoon arrangement — with catastrophic consequences for agriculture and ecosystems . Halted sea current could also further compound sea levels along the American Atlantic coast and transmit marine ecosystems and fishery into a state of " Sturm und Drang . "
Without urgent climate action , theAMOC could crack up in the next few decennary , although there is huge uncertainty in predicting the timescales , allot to the letter . The latestreportby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) states that " there is medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100 , " but the scientists say this is an underestimate .
— The Gulf Stream stopped pumping nutrients during the last trash age — and the same could be find now
— heavy piece of the Atlantic Ocean near the equator has been cooling at record speed — and scientists ca n’t calculate out why
— Gulf Stream ’s fortune to be decided by climate ' jerk - of - warfare '
The IPCC estimate is not only imprecise but also worrisome , accord to the letter .
" The intent of this letter is to draw care to the fact that only ' intermediate sureness ' in the AMOC not collapsing is not assure , and clearly leave reach the possibility of an AMOC collapse during this century , " the scientists wrote . " Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence , given that the final result would be ruinous and impact the entire world for centuries to issue forth , we believe more needs to be done to belittle this danger . "
The scientist addressed the letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers , an intergovernmental meeting place tasked with promoting cooperation among the Nordic countries . They urged policymakers to in earnest regard the risks puzzle by an AMOC collapse and to increase pressure on international partners to stay put close to the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement , which aims to keep average global temperature ascension to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit ( 1.5 degree Celsius ) above preindustrial levels .
