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The powerfulJames Webb Space Telescope(JWST ) has just fill out the first of two design observations of the infamous " city - cause of death " asteroid 2024 YR4 , which will make a perilously penny-pinching approach to Earth and the moon in December 2032 .
clear utilisation ofemergency scope timeawarded to an international team of astronomers in February , JWST ’s first observation of the building - size asteroid reveals that 2024 YR4 may be slimly larger and rockier than previous ground - based telescope studies suggested .
The ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 will come perilously close to the Earth, and may even hit the moon in 2032, James Webb Telescope observations confirm.
allot to aNASA statementreleased on April 2 , the JWST observations suggest the asteroid measures between 174 - 220 feet ( 53 - 67 meters ) in diameter , which is roughly the size of it of a 10 - story building . This is a slightly higher range than the previous sizing estimation of 131 - 295 feet ( 40 - 90 meters ) .
Luckily , though , JWST also confirmed whatNASAhas known for weeks:2024 YR4 is no longer a chance , and there is zero chance that the asteroid will strickle Earth in 2032 . However , a directcollision with the moonis still potential . NASA calculates that the odds of the asteroid stumble the moonshine in 2032 have risen from a roughly 2 % prospect to a 3.8 % chance of hit .
" While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22 , 2032 has now been rule out , it continues to have a non - zero chance of affect the Moon at this time , " the researcherswrote in their preliminary report , which has not yet been compeer - refresh . A 2nd round of JWST observations is design for May 2025 , before the asteroid disappears into the outersolar systemfor the next several years .
A NASA graphic of the possible locations (yellow points) of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032, as of Apr. 2, 2025.
come to : NASA ’s most need : The 5 most dangerous asteroids to Earth
Tracking a “city-killer”
Astronomers first find asteroid 2024 YR4 in December 2024 . Initial observation with footing - based telescope indicated that the outer space rock had a diameter of about 180 feet ( 55 meters ) — roughly as wide as the Leaning Tower of Pisa is magniloquent .
Its orbital trajectory frequently crosses Earth ’s route around the sun , making a direct collision with our planet possible . If such a tap were to occur , it could wipe out an intact city with the equivalent force of 500Hiroshima dud .
While psychoanalyse the asteroid ’s trajectory , research worker briefly calculate that 2024 YR4 had up to a3.1 % chance of crash into Earthin 2032 — the highest chance ever record for an physical object of this asteroid ’s size . NASA finally refined this prediction down to 0 % . But , while uncertainty reigned , theEuropean Space Agency(ESA)announcedthat several hour of JWST ’s exigency discretional time would be used to canvas the potentially wild blank tilt ’s size and flight .
Key to these observations are JWST’sinfraredsensors , which can directly notice heat emitted by the asteroid and provide insight into both its size and composition . Ground - base telescopes that observe visible light can only see the sunlight contemplate off of the asteroid ’s surface , leaving big questions about its true nature .
" In worldwide , the brighter the asteroid , the large it is , but this relationship strongly depends on how brooding the asteroid ’s surface is , " ESA official wrote in a Feb. 10blog post . " 2024 YR4 could be 40 m [ 130 feet ] across and very contemplative , or 90 m [ 295 feet ] across and not very reflective … the chance represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 thou asteroid . "
JWST made its first observation of the asteroid on March 26 , watching the asteroid rotate once every 20 minutes over a five - hour period . The researcher then convert the asteroid ’s luminance to mid - infrared wavelengths , take into account the know distances and angles between the asteroid , the Dominicus and JWST .
With these data , the squad estimated that asteroid 2024 YR4 is somewhat larger than was previously estimated , measuring about 200 feet ( 60 m ) in diameter ( this is roughly in the middle of NASA ’s calculate size mountain range of 174 - 220 feet wide ) . The caloric psychoanalysis also evoke that the asteroid is cooler than is typical for physical object of this size , hint that it may be rockier than previously think as well .
Front-row seats to a lunar impact?
But even if 2024 YR4 is a bit bigger and hard than we thought , it still flummox no at hand menace to Earth , the JWST data substantiate . But there does remain a roughly 3.8 % luck that the asteroid will slam into the lunation in 2032 , fit in to NASA .
While a lunar impact may sound scarey , the moon endures M of tiny meteor strikesevery twelvemonth and has the cratered scar to prove it has survived much larger impact . But see a have intercourse asteroid , with a known size and trajectory , gouge open a new volcanic crater in genuine time would be a world - first opportunity for lunar researchers .
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" We ’ve got our fingerbreadth crossed for a moon impact,“Alan Fitzsimmons , a physics and math prof at Queen ’s University Belfast in the U.K. who was not imply in the JWST observations , toldNew Scientist . " It would have no event on Earth , but would leave us to canvass the geological formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid for the very first clock time . "
The second rung of JWST observations , schedule for May , will further serve to refine the asteroid ’s orbital flight and its chances of hitting the moon .
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