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The risk of a volcanic eruption on Iceland ’s Reykjanes Peninsula is still very gamey , with ground deformation and quake go along along the magma dam — a near - vertical underground tunnel running from a magma bedchamber towards Earth ’s surface .
The 9.3 - Roman mile ( 15 kilometers ) magma dyke is locate between Sundhnúk in the northeastward to the town of Grindavík and into the sea . It formed after G of earthquakes hit the region in October and November . On Nov. 10 , residents of Grindavík were evacuated , and authorities warned of an imminent bam — potentially within just days .
Uplift is currently being recorded at Svartsengi, where a geothermal power plant and the Blue Lagoon resort are located.
Since then , seismic activity has go on , with more than 1,000 earthquakes hitting the area most years . Ground deformation has also continued , and immense sinkholes have appear in Grindavík , while significant upheaval around the Svartsengi power works and Blue Lagoon resort has also been recorded since the weekend .
" The initial earth front above the dyke was down , not up , " Jaime Toro , prof of structural geology and plate tectonic theory at West Virginia University , tell Live Science in an email . " The dyke pressure pushed the rift open and the magma that moved up drained from below , create a mass deficit . "
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Sinkholes have appeared in the town of Grindavík since the formation of the magma dike.
harmonize to atranslated statementfrom the Icelandic Met Office ( IMO ) , the arena at most risk of a chap appear — the point where the magma breaks through Earth ’s surface — is Hagafell , about 1.2 mil ( 2 klick ) north-east of Grindavík . In recent days , earthquake activity has fall slightly and distortion look to have slowed down , voice wrote in the statement on Tuesday .
In an interview with mbl.isthe same daytime , Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson , head of deformation measurements at the IMO , say the peril of volcanic eruption may slowly be fall . " If we look at the conditions in the magma tunnel , maybe the probability of eruption is tardily decreasing , " he said . " But it is far too former to rule out that possibleness . "
natural action at the magma system would need to cease for the eruption risk to be lower . And this is not the vitrine .
Grindavík was evacuated on Nov. 10 over fears a fissure could emerge near the town.
" I do n’t imagine that the danger of an eruption is starting to fall,“Bill McGuire , emeritus professor of Earth sciences at University College London in the U.K. , told Live Science in an email . " In fact , GPS data point show that the ground airfoil in the locality of the fracture is continuing to swell , which is likely have by the continued placement of magma at shallow depths . In addition , hundreds of dry land tremors are still happening every mean solar day , " McGarvie said .
" It will be several week — at least — before it can be said that an eruption is unlikely . "
Edward W. Marshall , a researcher at the University of Iceland ’s Nordic Volcanological Center , also say the risk of infection of eruption is still mellow . " If nothing happen and the magmatic arrangement becomes seismically tacit and there is no ground deformation , then thermal models foretell that even wide ( e.g. 1 meter [ 3.3 feet ] ) magma conduit will suspend substantial in sidereal day - to - week , " he told Live Science in an email . " However , there are still temblor and ground deformation . "
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Previous eruptions in the region show that there are further complication when predicting if an eructation could occur . When the nearbyFagradalsfjall volcano erupted in 2021 — for the first time in around 800 years — earthquake activity quit just before a crack emerged . It was three weeks between the dike forming and erupting during this outcome .
" In Grindavík now , it is less than two hebdomad since dike injection , " Marshall said . " So it may take more time . The point is that the soonest possible scenario that an eruption would be designated ' unlikely ' is in a week or two . But I think this episode will more belike go on longer . "
