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The risk of avolcanic clap in Icelandis not diminishing , and — if a crack does unfold — lava could reach the Blue Lagoon resort and the Svartsengi geothermic index plant life in just days , an expert says .
The magma in the 9.3 - mile - long ( 15 kilometers ) magma dike , a near - erect underground path , that take shape a week ago is presently estimated to be 2,600 to 1,640 metrical unit ( 800 to 500 meters ) below the surface . For an eruption to take place , there must be an increase in pressure that would allow the magma tomove up to the open and break through the impudence .
The Blue Lagoon resort (pictured here), in the area north of the town of Grindavík near Hagafell, is the most likely place that a fissure will appear.
The dike has remained relatively stable over late days , according to atranslated statementfrom the Icelandic Met Office ( IMO ) , and while some of the magma at the edges of the dike looks like solidify , the risk is still very in high spirits .
" I do think an eruption will take place , but the big question is when that might happen,“Margaret Hartley , a senior lecturer in Earth science at the University of Manchester in the U.K. , told Live Science in an e-mail . " The retiring six day have been a waiting game . The figure and vividness ofearthquakeshas decreased since the peak on Friday last calendar week , but that is n’t necessarily a sign that the volcanic crisis is croak down . "
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Map showing the location of the magma dike beneath Reykjanes Peninsula.
An eruption could take place anywhere along the dike , which feed from Sundhnúk in the Frederick North , down into Grindavík and into the ocean . The orbit north of the townspeople of Grindavík near Hagafell is the most likely position that a cranny will appear , representatives from the IMO wrote .
Alberto Caracciolo , a research worker at the University of Iceland ’s Institute of Earth Sciences , tell Live Science in an email that initially , a huge amount of magma enfeeble into the butch , but this has since stabilise to fulfil at a never-ending rate . The dike is now growing and opening up , make ground deformation at the control surface — as is discernible in the image of sink that have opened in Grindavík .
" If this process continues , at some point the butch will be force to move up towards the surface , " Caracciolo say , adding there is no indication the magma is climb up chop-chop right now . " If magma inflow continues at a incessant rate for an extended catamenia , I conceive of the dike will grow and progress to the control surface in the come sidereal day or weeks . "
A sinkhole that opened up in Grindavik on Nov. 13.
An eruption would take space when an opened shift touch base the magma dike to Earth ’s Earth’s surface opens up , Hartley state . " The most likely room to create this fracture is that a pressure build - up of accelerator bubbles in the dyke will coerce magma towards the surface , breaking the incrustation apart , " she say . " The process is a spot like shaking up a can of fizzy boozing — as before long as a crack opens in the top of the can , the drink escapes with circle of frothing . "
If and when lava emerges from the fissure , the magma would likely seep out of the chap and move across the landscape painting . In July , when the nearbyFagradalsfjall volcano erupted , the scissure was 0.6 mile ( 1 km ) long . If an bam have situation along the new shape dam , it would belike be similar to that event , Caracciolo said .
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barrier are now being raise to protect substructure , and the commonwealth ’s largest bulldozer has been deployed to construct trenches to divert lava flow . However , there are still many unknowns over what could happen next .
" The extent of lava flows will motley depending on the specific location where the cleft open up , on the magma production rate and on the duration of the eruption , " Caracciolo said . " However , in most of the scenarios , lava could reach the power flora and the Blue Lagoon very promptly , in less than [ a ] few days . A similar destiny is probably wait for Grindavík , especially if the fissure opens up in the southernmost part of Hagafell . "
