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There is a slim but overlooked danger that the " God of Chaos " asteroidApophiscould hit Earth as it make a first-rate near glide path to our satellite in 2029 , a Modern study expose . The odds of such a calamitous hit are more than one - in - a - billion — but we wo n’t be able to rule it out for at least three more age .
Apophis is a Arachis hypogaea - shaped blank tilt span around 1,100 feet ( 340 beat ) across , or around the same size as the Eiffel Tower . At this sizing , the chunky distance rock’n’roll is not respectable enoughto be considered a " major planet Orcinus orca " asteroidbut isbig enough to wipe out a large cityand gun trigger satellite - broad climatical effects . The"potentially wild " objectwas give away in 2004 and was named after Apep , the Egyptian snake god of dark and disorder , which has earned it the nickname " God of Chaos . "
Apophis is a “city-killer” asteroid that is due to fly extremely closely by Earth in 2029.
short after the space rock was discovered , astronomers let out that Apophis would have an extremely close fly - by with Earth on April 13 , 2029 , trigger fears that it could hit our planet . However , follow - up observations bring out that the asteroid will sail safely past Earth at a space of less than 20,000 mi ( 32,000 kilometers ) — less than one - tenth part the aloofness between Earth and the moon , agree toNASA . This could still be close enough to hit some of our most distant ground - orbit satellites .
But large asteroid like Apophis can be nudged off course by impacts from small asteroids , similar to howNASA ’s DART charge successfully redirected the asteroid Dimorphos bysmashing a space vehicle into it in 2022 . Researchers have antecedently warn that this could be a possibility with Apophis over the next five years , potentially bump the metropolis - killer onto a hit trend with Earth .
In the new bailiwick , published Aug. 26 inThe Planetary Science Journal , astronomerPaul Wiegert — an expert insolar systemdynamics at Western University in Canada — cipher the betting odds of such a scenario happen and encounter that while it was passing improbable , it is still possible .
Apophis will come within 20,000 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029, meaning it will come closer to out planet than some satellites.
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In March , Weigert was part of a similar report value the jeopardy of Apophis being deflected by any known asteroids and found thatthere was " zero hazard " of this befall . However , at the clock time , the researchers did discourage that there was still a luck that an undiscovered asteroid could collide with Apophis .
In the new written report , Weigert used electronic computer model to simulate the likeliness of an undiscovered asteroid — that is either too low or too close to the Sunday to be spotted from Earth — hitting Apophis over the next five years . The simulations revealed that the prospect of an unknown asteroid hitting Apophis off its current line was less than one - in - a - million , while the odds that such an impact " could significantly displace Apophis compared to its miss distance in 2029 " was less than one - in - a - billion , Weigert wrote in the paper .
Astronomers first spotted Apophis in 2004. In these 2013 photos, the asteroid can be seen through various wavelengths by ESA’s Herschel Space Observatory.
However , even if this did take place , there is still no guarantee that a alteration in flight will labour the asteroid closer to Earth instead of further aside from our major planet , meaning that the real betting odds of a hit are even lower .
But we will have to wait until 2027 to find out if Apophis has been pick apart off course because it is presently out of sight due to its faithful proximity to the sun . When it does reappear , astronomers will be well able-bodied to count on the odds of likely change of course between then and 2029 , Weigert wrote .
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Beyond 2029 , Apophis will continue to make frequent close approaches to Earth , asit did most of late in 2021 . There will be particularly close shaves in 2051 , 2066 and 2080 , but models suggest the space rockposes no threat to Earth for at least 100 years .
We will larn more about Apophis ' future after 2029 , when NASA ’s OSIRIS APEX space vehicle — formerly known asOSIRIS - REx — willfly closely past the asteroidshortly after the spacecraft ’s flyby of Earth .
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