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It ’s a classic science fabrication scenario : An enormousasteroidis divulge hurtling toward Earth that is sure to trigger a cataclysmic experimental extinction upon impact . Intrepid scientists have only a twelvemonth to found a pre-emptive strike against the space tilt — to pink it off course or blow it to bit — with the fate of humankind at stake . Can they stop it ?
This doomsday scenario is , in all likelihood , one humans alive today will never have to face . Astronomers have mapped the trajectory of more than33,000 asteroidsthat make periodic confining approaches to Earth , and none pose any risk of encroachment for at least the next 100 years .
Hurry, there’s still time!
Still , scientist understand that disaster can descend with little warning;thousands of asteroid move conceal in the sunlight ’s blaze , including many rocks bombastic enough to kill intact city , and theEuropean Space Agency(ESA ) warns that loads of " planet killer " asteroids — those measuring wider than 0.6 mile ( 1 kilometer ) and capable of triggering a planetary extinction result — still lurk unexplored in oursolar system .
For this reason , space agencies take the doomsday scenario " very seriously,“Brent Barbee , an aerospace engineer atNASA ’s Goddard Spaceflight Center and a professor of aerospace engineering science at the University of Maryland , told Live Science . And after old age of research — including theworld ’s first foreign mission to turn away an real asteroidin space — the outside community ’s effort have yielded two viable ways of commute a potentially mortal asteroid ’s grade : hitting it with a high - speed impactor , or pummeling it withnuclear explosive .
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An animation visualizes DART’s approach to its asteroid target.
The kinetic impactor method
presently , the only proven way to stave off an asteroid is the kinetic impactor method — fundamentally , a very , very in high spirits - wager biz of cosmic consortium .
" The kinetic impactor is a spacecraft that basically just rams into the asteroid at high speed and transport its impulse to the asteroid , much like playing billiards , " Barbee said . " But then the ejected material that comes off the asteroid from the impact point can render additional momentum change for the asteroid and campaign it a minuscule bit harder . "
NASA tested the energising impactor method acting with the recentDouble Asteroid Redirection Test ( DART ) — a $ 325 million commission that designedly crash a speeding spaceship into the 580 - substructure - encompassing ( 177 cadence ) asteroid Dimorphos in Sept. 2022 .
An image of the giant dust plume that was generated after NASA’s DART probe smashed into asteroid Dimorphos, as seen by the Hubble Space Telescope.
However , the energizing impactor method acting has its drawbacks , Barbee said . Particularly , the fully grown the objective asteroid is , the more kinetic impactors are necessitate to ward off it .
For example , to deflect an asteroid measuring close to 2,000 feet ( 610 m ) wide — or about three times the size of Dimorphos — scientist would need to at the same time set up between 39 and 85 Falcon Heavy rocket carry energising impactors , Barbee said , quote the results of a mock asteroid deflexion exercise conducted at the International Academy of AstronauticsPlanetary Defense Conferencethis year . To deflect an asteroid measure 4,900 feet ( 1.5 kilometre ) widely — a true " planet killer " — we ’d need to simultaneously launch anywhere from 565 to 1,266 energising impactors , count on which part of Earth the asteroid was poised to strike . ( A glancing black eye charter less aggregated to deflect than a utter - center hitting ) .
" Either way , those figure are completely impractical , " Barbee order .
A Titan II nuclear missile sits in its silo in Arizona.
The nuclear option
The current " best option " for deflecting a large asteroid is to set up a nuke at it , Barbee enunciate .
" A unmarried fittingly sized nuclear volatile machine was , in our analysis , found to be adequate to of deflecting even the 1.5 klick size asteroid , " he added .
Logistically , the process would begin like a workaday interplanetary mission , with a nuclear arm mounted securely atop a received launch vehicle , then hand over to the asteroid on a small space vehicle . From there , the weapon could be explode near the asteroid during a high - speed flyby — or , ideally , the nuke - sway spacecraft could rendezvous with the target asteroid , orbiting it for month or even class to find oneself the stark slant of approach , much likeNASA ’s OSIRIS - king ballistic capsule didwith asteroid Bennu from Dec. 2018 to Oct. 2020 . The idealistic blot for a nuclear detonation would be within a few hundred feet of the asteroid , Barbee said .
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) command team at Johns Hopkins University monitors the DART spacecraft’s impact into the asteroid Dimorphos.
Then , the explosion — a attack that would look nothing like any nuclear bomb calorimeter ever detonated on Earth .
" place , of course , is a vacuity … so you do n’t get a big pressure wave , or any of the thermal effect of a sublunary blowup , " Barbee said . " You get a whole deal of radiation all at once . "
This deluge of radiation syndrome would fall into place and vaporize a thin out layer of the asteroid ’s aerofoil . Then , like a energizing impactor on sex hormone , the vaporized stuff would shoot off the asteroid , giving the rock a powerful shove forth from the detonation . If positioned right , the blowup would criticize the satellite - killer off its hit course with Earth .
This method could be equally effective at disrupting smaller"city killer " asteroids , too — those measuring at least 165 ft ( 50 m ) in diameter , which is mostly considered the minimum size for an asteroid to reach Earth ’s surface , Barbee say . While a kinetic impact against such a rock ‘n’ roll endure the risk of fragmenting it , forming chunks of unknown sizes be active in irregular ways , a well - placed nuclear warhead could simply " shove along the asteroid to smithereens , " empty the problem at once , Barbee added .
However , for now the " nuke it " method acting exists only in pretence based on information from planetary explosions . Many factor , include the size of it and composition of the asteroid , and the timeframe and trajectory of its glide path to Earth , would ultimately impact such a mission ’s succeeder .
Timing is everything
The biggest challenge with both methods is timing . In their Planetary Defense Conference exercises , astronomers were given 15 year ' warning before the hypothetic asteroid ’s wallop with Earth . This gave them sizeable fourth dimension to project , launch and rendezvous a space vehicle with the asteroid .
If a real planet - killer was discovered just a class or two before impact , thing would get dicey .
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" The distinctive interplanetary delegation growth timeline is about five years , " Barbee say . " The way of life thing put up justly now , getting something off the undercoat in a year would be very unmanageable . I do n’t want to say outright that it would be impossible , but it would certainly be a big challenge . "
That ’s why the upright wandering defense team is notice asteroid too soon — graph them , monitoring them , and prepare a contingency plan of plan of attack . Many ground - base observatories are already on the face , with several space - based mission — include NASA’sNEO Surveyorand ESA’sNEOMIRsatellites — in the works to join them . Hopefully , together , these eyes on the skies will keep scientist well inform about any killer whale lurking in the cosmic fog .
" Asteroid impacts are one of the fewnatural disastersthat we actually have the means to both foresee and prevent , " Barbee enjoin . " And so we ’re taking advantage of that fact and attempt to become as prepared as potential . "
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