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scientist have revealed the unusual shape of a enceinte asteroid with the potential to smack into the lunar month in the year 2032 , according to new research .
Asteroid 2024 YR4 set off a flurry of interest earlier this twelvemonth afterNASAdetermined there was a opportunity it could hit Earth . The risk of an Earth wallop has sincedropped to zero , but there ’s still a slim chance 2024 YR4 could stumble the moon in 2032 — 3.8 % likelihood as of former April .
A team of astronomers has determined the shape of asteroid 2024 YR4, which could hit the moon.
A team of astronomers recently study the asteroid in more detail using the Gemini South telescope in Chile . The researchers found that 2024 YR4 likely come from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter and has an unco flat , disk - like shape , exchangeable to a hockey puck , according to astatementreleased by the National Science Foundation ’s National Optical - Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory ( NOIRLab ) .
" This find was rather unexpected since most asteroid are think to be shaped like Solanum tuberosum or toy tops rather than flat disks , " study lead authorBryce Bolin , a research Scientist at Eureka Scientific , a California - based astrophysics and astronomy research corporation , say in the statement .
The researchers posted their finding to the preprint databasearXiv , and will presently release them in The Astrophysical Journal Letters .
Related:‘Just the tip of the iceberg ' : Why high-risk asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come
stargazer discover the asteroid 2024 YR4 in December 2024 , hence the " 2024 " in its name . In February , thelikelihood of 2024 YRYhitting Earth in 2032 rise to 1 in 32 , or 3.1 % , which was the highest impact probability NASA had ever recorded for a space object of 2024 YR4 ’s size or heavy .
However , astronomers always wait the terror level to drop once they learned more about 2024 YRY ’s trajectory . Within day , the likelihood plummeted to effectively zero , and has a0.00078%chance of slay Earth in 2032 at the time of writing . However , there remains a jeopardy for the moon — not that the asteroid would importantly damage the moonlight even if it does hit .
For the new subject field , researchers captured images of the place careen at unlike wavelength of spark . The team used 2024 YRY ’s pattern of light output over time , or lightcurve , to take the asteroid ’s shape , composition and orbital characteristics , grant to the assertion .
From the rock music ’s brooding pattern , the researchers concluded that 2024 YR4 is likely an sec - type asteroid , which think of it is rich in silicates — a class of minerals that includes crystal . The team also determined that the asteroid is rotating very fast , about once every 20 transactions , and estimated its size to be 98 to 213 feet ( 30 to 65 time ) astray , according to the study .
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Researchers have been trying to accurately estimate the size of 2024 YR4 since its breakthrough , and this later approximation is similar to late approximation . Recent information from theJames Webb Space Telescopesuggested it could be slimly bigger , 174 to 220 foot ( 53 to 67 meters ) , Live Science antecedently reported .
2024 YR4 is one of the largest objects in late history with the potential to strike the moon , according to the statement . Back when there was a rise likeliness of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth , it was dubbed a possible " city orca " because it was large enough towipe out a major city .
While unbelievable , a lunar impingement would provide researchers with an unprecedented opportunity to study how the sizing of an asteroid interrelate to the size of it of the crater it create , consort to the program line .
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