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As of Wednesday ( Feb. 19 ) afternoon , NASA decreased the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032from 3.1 % to 1.5 % .
The chance that a majorasteroid , liberal enough to wipe out an entire city , will hit Earth in 2032 has just increase to 1 in 32 , or 3.1 % , allot toNASA .
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1 in 32 chance of hitting Earth at the time of writing.
On Feb. 7 , NASAincreased the likelihoodthat asteroid 2024 YR4 will rack up Earth in seven years time from 1.2 % to 2.3 % . The betting odds of impact then climbed to 2.6 % , and are now at 3.1 % , harmonise to thelatest dataon NASA ’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies site .
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an forecast diameter of around 177 foot ( 54 m ) , or about as wide-eyed as the lean column of Pisa is tall . But while it is too modest to end human civilisation , the asteroid could stillwipe out a major city , releasing about 8 megaton of zip upon encroachment — more than 500 times the energy let go of by the atomic bomb calorimeter that destroyedHiroshima , Japan .
The in effect news is that there ’s still a 96.9 % chance that the asteroid will miss Earth solely , and as researchers learn more about its flight , the odds of a strike are probable to decrease to 0 % , establish on its current risk of infection level in the NASA data . There ’s also a petite 0.3 % chance that YR4will attain the mooninstead of Earth , Live Science previously reported .
Related : Potentially hazardous asteroids : How many dangerous space rock and roll lurk near Earth — and can we stop them ?
Scientists expend a measurement called theTorino Scaleto categorize the danger puzzle by nearby asteroids and comet . With a Torino scale leaf rating of 3 out of 10 , YR4 is capable of localise wipeout and pass away the 1 % impact probability room access ( imply the risk of a potential impact is estimated to be great than 1 % ) .
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Additional observations will give scientists a more precise estimate of the asteroid ’s orbit , which unremarkably mean they ’ll be more confident it wo n’t come to Earth . Many other objects on NASA ’s asteroid risk list have ended up with an impact chance of 0 % after more data became useable .
A team of scientists was recentlygranted emergency useof theJames Webb Space Telescope , the most herculean outer space scope , to study YR4 in the come months and assess its risk , as well as its true size .
YR4 is presently the only known large asteroid with a more than 1 % chance of hitting Earth , grant toNASA ’s world-wide defense blog . In the unconvincing consequence that YR4 does collide with Earth , it would probably reach somewhere along a " risk corridor " stretching across the eastern Pacific Ocean , northern South America , the Atlantic Ocean , Africa , the Arabian Sea , and South Asia , according toNASA .
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