The news that AT&T would be acquiring its rival T - Mobile USA from its parent ship’s company Deutsche Telekom come as a surprisal , even to those who keep close tab key on the wireless technology area . But , in the Wake Island of the declaration , questions have already get to arise about what the plenty mean for the future of the iPhone .
Of naturally , before any major changes come to pass , the two companies will have to get regulative approval from the U.S. government , which will attempt to ensure that the combining of two of the area ’s braggart four cell postman will not cramp contender in the wireless common carrier marketplace . But once the debris set about to settle , how will the shock be felt on existing iPhone customers , and on Apple itself ?
Better service, more coverage
For existing AT&T iPhone users , the acquisition of T - Mobile will probably be a positive exploitation — at least technologically . For one thing , AT&T stands to make headway a plethora of exist cellular phone towers in the U.S. This will allow the carrier to expand their connection coverage in ways that would n’t have otherwise been feasible , since build new tug is often a costly and clock time - consuming suggestion , specially in thick population areas where iPhone users have traditionally experienced toilsome web over-crowding .
Charles Golvin , an analyst with Forrester Research in Boston , said live AT&T iPhone users should see increased service quality and expanded reporting if the merger is approved . T - Mobile adds “ tenner of K ” of towers to the AT&T web in the short - full term , and other assets over the long haul .
According to AT&T , the party will increase its cell sites by 25 to 35 pct in San Francisco and New York , both noted trouble spots , and by 35 to 45 percent in Chicago . The expansion will hopefully increase reporting in buildings and allow the internet to be more flexible in the case of events that might provide heavy clusters of usage . The carrier says that in most markets , these increases are tantamount to several age of build up new cubicle internet site .
“ It ’s somewhat good news , presume it actually hold up through , ” said Avi Greengart , research director for consumer equipment at market research firm Current Analysis . “ If you ’re an existing AT&T iPhone client , in particular in New York or San Francisco , there should be a lot of extra cell phone mental ability that derive online because of this deal . It ’s gotten respectable , but there are still a lot of devices in a little domain . That may ease a lot of the problems people have in those two locales . ”
However , certain adjustments will have to be made to existing cell situation . presently , while T - Mobile and AT&T habituate the same 3 one thousand technology — High - amphetamine Packet Access ( HSPA)—the two web rely on different wireless frequencies , make their handset incompatible . ( They do , however , partake in a frequence for the sure-enough EDGE technology which allows for spokesperson calls and slower data transfer of training ) .
AT&T has articulate that T - Mobile ’s cell situation will be bit by bit update to support AT&T ’s frequence as well . That has the add together welfare of eventually free up the piece of radiocommunication spectrum used by T - Mobile ’s 3 G service , a valuable asset as the receiving set frequency available to wireless providers have become few and far between .
“ This should translate finally into a good user experience , ” Forrester Research ’s Golvin said . “ T - Mobile has several spectrum plus , some of which will be used to help AT&T build out its next - generation LTE mesh . ”
Fourth-generation LTE network
That extroverted rollout of the Long - Term Evolution ( LTE ) technology was the other major possible benefit of the mass vaunt by AT&T. This 4 gram wireless meshwork should allow for faster data speed and improved electrical capacity , though AT&T admonish that full deployment is still some time off . In that race , the carrier is playing catch - up to Verizon , whichbegan follow up its own LTE net in major market last year . AT&T has said in the past times that it plan to begin a migration to LTE this year . With the addition of T - Mobile ’s cellular phone internet site , AT&T says its LTE web will be able-bodied to reach 95 percentage of the U.S. population .
While the timeline for LTE espousal still makes it unconvincing that Apple will bring out a 4 G iPhone this twelvemonth , the T - Mobile / AT&T merge may , once O.K. , speed the technology ’s rollout , making a 4 g-force iPhone possible sooner rather than afterward .
The merger “ should speed up the rollout of LTE , and [ AT&T should ] have much greater LTE coverage , ” say Tim Bajarin , chairwoman of industry analysis firm Creative Strategies . “ In theory , once you go to LTE networks , you should have better - quality vociferation and less dropped Call . But all that ’s theoretical , since we do n’t have those connection yet . ”
T-Mobile iPhone?
Of naturally , T - Mobile customers potentially stand to see improvement as well . While the attainment does not grant the carrier ’s customers immediate access to Apple ’s French telephone , it does at least allow a road map for those interested customers who did n’t desire to abandon their web .
“ I think there are still some T - Mobile loyalists who will be interested in the iPhone , ” said Current Analys ’s Avi Greengart .
Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies said there has been “ pent - up demand ” among T - Mobile customers for access to the iPhone . “ There ’s no doubtfulness this could be a win for T - Mobile customers who have been wanting an iPhone . ”
“ How much [ demand ] , we do n’t know , ” Bajarin said . “ We know that both Sprint and T - Mobile had been lobbying Apple to get the iPhone as well . ”
Forrester Research ’s Charles Golvin thinks that while Apple will benefit from a new client base , it will only be to a limited extent . “ We have n’t really surveil those customers . I would guess [ the likely number of newfangled iPhone substance abuser ] is in the low number of million . The customer who were so infatuated of the iPhone and would do anything to get it have probably already switched to AT&T or Verizon . ”
Ross Rubin , directory of industry analysis at market research house the NPD Group , agrees . “ If you wanted an iPhone or other handsets in AT&T ’s portfolio , you had that option today — you could ’ve switch and paid more , potentially , for your data plan . ” While Rubin thinks some may want an iPhone , he also suggest that other value carriers like Cricket and Virgin Mobile may be better positioned to grab T - Mobile client .
Michael Gartenberg , an psychoanalyst with engineering enquiry fellowship Gartner , said that AT&T and Apple ca n’t be assured that T - Mobile customers will follow their phone troupe , no matter the lure of the iPhone . “ The big challenge , ” said Gartenberg , ” is that people need T - Mobile for a reason , they were with T - Mobile for a reason . You likely want to be convinced that AT&T gives you the same value as before , and if not , that opens things up . The consumers are in caper . ”
Apple seems sure to pick up at least some gains from the expand attack aircraft carrier and , between the young AT&T and Verizon , the company seems poised to make the iPhone usable to the vast majority of American consumer .
Added Gartenberg , “ If those T - Mobile client flock to AT&T , that ’s probably a good thing for Apple . ”
The downside
While there are plenty of likely benefits to the bargain between AT&T and T - Mobile , that does n’t mean it does n’t have its ploughshare of drawback . Despite the insistence by AT&T and T - Mobile leadership that the acquisition will not harm competition in the wireless postman mart , it does reduce the national athletic field to three major players : AT&T , Verizon , and Sprint .
T - Mobile had long competed with the larger bearer by undercut them on price and provide features that the others would n’t offer . NPD ’s Rubin noted that the immune carrier was positioned as a “ value web ” that did n’t needs invoke to iPhone or gadget enthusiasts . With T - Mobile gone , that purpose will presumably be fill by smaller carriers and regional operators — though they wo n’t needfully have the same punch .
Sprint Nextel , which will be the modest of the major carriers if the deal goes through , may find itself with the short end of the marijuana cigarette , unable to compete with the larger letter carrier . Areport inThe Wall Street Journalon Monday(paid account required ) refer fear that Sprint would quickly receive itself ineffectual to compete with the colossus of Verizon and AT&T. The merger is a fussy gust to the nation ’s third - largest internet , asa TechCrunch storyreports that Sprint itself may have been eyeball an acquisition of T - Mobile . Ross Rubin of the NPD Group note that , post merger , Sprint will also be the only major internet not selling the iPhone .
Approval of the peck might also trigger a sort of arm race between Verizon and AT&T. That could make Sprint a tantalising fair game for a Verizon acquisition since , just as AT&T and T - Mobile both have HSPA - base networks , Sprint and Verizon both use the same CDMA wireless technology . Such a move could reduce competition in the wireless carrier market even further .
And if competition in the wireless carrier mart dwindles , it ’s consumers that will find themselves on the lose ending of the passel . To date , the struggle between Verizon and AT&T for consumer has been savage . For example , when Verizon announced the launching of the iPhone 4 on its internet in January , it did sowith an unlimited information plan ; AT&T , meanwhile , had already toss away its own inexhaustible offeringin party favor of a tiered fashion model last year . Verizon also boasteda $ 20 per calendar month personal hot spot featurefor the iPhone that one - upped AT&T’slimited tethering option . Undaunted , AT&T retaliated with its own likewise - price personal hotspot feature within weeks .
AT&T , for its part , argues that the last X , which has had its fair share of fusion — including AT&T Wireless ’s own marriage with Cingular in 2004 , the Sprint / Nextel merger in 2005 , and Verizon ’s acquisition of Alltel in 2008 — has visualize steadily lower costs for consumer . However , there are a assortment of other reasons that could be responsible for for those monetary value drop , include wider adoption of cell phone , and increase competition among handset makers .
But with regulatory approval reckon at 12 months away , there are still a lot of obstacles to be overcome before AT&T ’s skill of AT&T die ahead .
“ This is by no mean a done deal , and this is on the nose the kind of softwood the regulative kinfolk in Washington are going to take a close aspect at , ” said Gartner ’s Gartenberg . “ While this may make good business organization sensory faculty , does this make good sense from a consumer standpoint ? Does it make undecomposed signified from a consumer stand to go from four connection to three networks ? ”
[ Joel Mathis contributed report for this story . ]
