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Around 200,000 Americans may cash in one’s chips every year ifglobal warmingraises average temperature to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit ( 3 degrees Celsius ) above pre - industrial temperature and cities do n’t gear up , a new study suggests .
In 106 cities across the U.S. , where 65 % of the population lives , an average of 36,444 people drop dead every year between 1987 and 2000 of temperature - related causal agency . Three - quarters of these deaths were in people who were historic period 75 or sometime .
Cities will need to become better adapted for hotter temperatures to help mitigate the predicted rise in temperature-related deaths.
If heating reaches 5.4 F — which some mood expert warn may pass off by theend of the one C — and the country ’s proportion of aged people increases as bear , this one-year death toll could increase more than fivefold , the study predicted . This would amount to about one - third of the issue of peoplewho currently die from cancereach year in the land .
Most of these additional deaths would occur in northern state , whose metropolis are n’t well adapted to high temperatures .
However , cities that accommodate to the heat , for instance by increase access to aviation - conditioning ( AC ) , could reduce these deaths by 28 % , the authors of the study wrote in a paper published Aug. 15 in the journalGeoHealth .
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" Climate change is move to pose a number of challenge to humans ; one of them will be temperature - related mortality,“Andrew Dessler , cogitation author and prof of atmospherical sciences at Texas A&M University , enjoin Live Science in an email . " We wait a large addition in the number of temperature - related deaths over the coming C , due primarily to an age population . "
If the fair temperature rises less than 5.4 F , mood alteration will slightly minify temperature - related deaths as fewer people will die out from cold-blooded weather , the study determine .
" Climate change will dissemble people other than depend on where they survive and how much heating we get , " Dessler say . " In general , the northerly U.S. will see increases in temperature - relate mortality , while the southerly U.S. will see fewer deaths . " This is because the southern U.S. is already well adjust to spicy temperature , he said , so will be capable to handle more extreme heat energy better than northern commonwealth .
The subject has several limitations . Firstly , it does n’t address other causes of end bear upon by clime alteration , like those tied topest - spread diseasesormajor hurricanes , for instance . The authors also group " temperature - related deaths " together by modeling how the average number of day-after-day deaths fluctuates in relation to change in average day-after-day temperatures , meaning they were n’t able to specify precise case of death , such as by heating system stroke . By focusing on medium - to - tumid cities , it also does n’t address how warming might affect rural areas .
Nevertheless , Vivek Shandas , a professor of clime adaptation at Portland State University who was not imply in the enquiry , recite Live Science that this study reinforces the need to speedily modify infrastructure , landscape and community to account for hotter summer , specially in the North . This may let in allowing for greater shade and movement of air in building plans , set ashore up the vim grid and expanding unripened space and tree canopy , he tell Live Science in an email .
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Although it is authoritative to be well ready for more extreme temperature , it is also crucial to undertake the underlie issue of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and othergreenhouse gasesto near zero to stabilize the clime , Dessler said .
" mellow temperatures this year have gone a long way in increasing the knowingness of passion risks in the universe and long - weighing machine , cohesive policies would go a farsighted way in helping minimize future wellness impacts,“Stephen Fong , director for the Center for Integrative Life Sciences Education at Virginia Commonwealth University who was not involved in the research , told Live Science in an e-mail .
" While establish air conditioning may be an obvious short - full term resolution , it is more akin to a bandaid pickle and we conjointly need to handle underlying issues including those take to the increase in temperature , " he say .
